WHY CHINA MAY FALL

For a while I pondered on the successes of the emerging economies, rising out of the ashes to compete with America, United Kingdom and other European powers.Brazil,India,China and Russia indeed have achieved a feat.
Of all Chinas success is unique. It operates a communist system of government and managed to care for a large population. Just second to America with promises of being the next power, China has proven to be beyond the phenomenon of being phenomenal. That’s the current reality.

Citing these milestones may be easy, saying otherwise with facts may be painful; after all a good number of left wing Marxists would have been quick to rejoice over the possibility of overthrowing capitalism. The bottom line is Chinas success maybe short-lived. Why?

Internal democracy is non-existent in China, in recent time’s Tibetan monks and some Mongolia citizens have made dissenting positions such that the government had to suppress them with force. Remember the Tiananmen Square? It lives in the memories of people but the power of the barrel of the gun still holds sway and it is the most powerful according to Chairman Mao-Pioneer of the communist party in China. According to feelers some members of the communist party are aware of this and have made arrangements such as buying houses abroad and getting their passports ready so that they can travel once the bubble bursts like it did in old USSR.

Demographically China has been very fortunate over the years with a large population of young people yesteryears China has been able to enjoy demographic dividends. Today the young people are now old and the likelihood of replacing them is dim. Thanks to the one child per family policy. It cannot be overemphasized that the once young people were the one of the major pillars holding the Chinese state. With rising wages and rising prices of food, China still has pension issues to contend with when these crop of old people retire. The only option is to extend retirement age like France did. Given the forceful nature of their government this is possible, but for how long?


Chinese policy is not far reaching unlike the capitalist club. Africa can be polygamous by befriending China, but not permanently.Africas true husband is the west. With the romance between America and India, with the promise of a United Nations council sit to India, China and Russia’s anti-western mien would be adjusted. India has been giving out aids to other countries, China has only been investing. If it was you who would you dance to? The former I guess.

Media power is little on Chinas side of the divide. The west’s greatest power is the media. Even Al-Jazeera still sets their agenda for them. Who are the real allies of China? Iran? Russia? Even Cuba has started reforms. Let’s hope China does same, otherwise she would or might wake up on the other side of old USSR.

JEGAS ELECTION DILEMMA:BEHIND THE SCENES

National Assembly elections which were supposed to hold on 2nd April,2011 were cancelled due to the problems of logistics and irregularities which could have undermined the credibility of the elections.Many have called Professor Jega several names such as Just Elect Goodluck, Jonathan Ebele Goodluck Azikiwe etc.It is a shame in the West-African sub-region,Africa and in the international community.

However,if you were in Jegas shoes what would you do?Jega is like the proverbial Soyinka or Tai Solarin,national heroes ho refused to sit on the fence,hence took appointments to serve their fatherland.Till dates the appointments have been used as reference points to soil their characters.Jega has a lot in common with them;they were activist,intellectuals with good reputations and most important the institutions which they controlled were sabotaged by selfish elements purposely and consciously through regular acts of corruption.Such is Jegas case.

Jega truly must be joking to think that his name would remain intact easily after this elections.There were rumours of misleadings in printing of AC and ACN with the broom logo just to mislead voters and dividing votes of ACN.Materials and personnel also were not available in some areas.Some names were also missing from the registers.Who is to blame?Jega of course,if we are to follow the management paradigm that the buck stops at his table.We must also rule out the roles of eroded values,lack of professional in federal institutions and the arduous task of managing a weak institution like INEC.Above all we must not rile out the lukewarm attitude of everyone towards a Sovereign National Conference,where we-all Nigerians, would rewrite our social contract,because as we read we don't have one.At best we all dont have a true intent of staying together as a nation.Some portion of the ruling elite have their own contract;to suck the country dry at the peril of the common man.At least they have an agreement.What is the agreement of the civil society and the masses?Nothing with cohesion,I guess.

To cut the chase only true federalism can solve this problem.If true federalism is in place there wont be so much desperation to win elections because the abundant oil money at the federal money wont be in place.there would be fiscal responsibility and the money used to fuel corrupt political machineries wont be enough.These leviathan politicians would wither and accountability at all levels would increase.Governance would reach the grassroots easily and and political consciousness would increase.What is the relevance of this to the Jega dilemma?To conduct credible elections we need strong institutions,this inevitably is made up of people with values; I dont think we have this in place.We have majority with uniformed or eroded values which translate to availability of weak institutions.

The only way out is a true sovereign national conference,a consequent adoption of true federalism,if we are to end this Jaga-Jaga republic.In the words of Pat Utomi ;''We must pull down this democracy,its not working" Truly we must pull it down and rebuild.

We must bear it in mind that the masters are at it again,they wont let Jega organize credible elections.It is now obvious that we don't only need strong men; we also need strong institutions.Fellow Nigerians,we are the ones to build these institutions.This is not Ghana,our case is more complex.We have to campaign and call for true federalism and write a social contract.If we cant do that one million jegas cant beat the masters.We would have to endure for another four years as usual and complain on facebook,twitter and other social media platforms.We would only protest in vain,because we refuse to elicit the right actions.

Th right action is a Sovereign National Conference.If not don't blame Jega, behind the scenes the masters are behind his dilemma

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JEGAS ELECTION DILEMMA:BEHIND THE SCENES

JEGAS ELECTION DILEMMA:BEHIND THE SCENES

JEGAS ELECTION DILEMMA:BEHIND THE SCENES

THE MARRIAGE:RIBADU,TINUBU AND IBB

I fear this one.Wetin?Didnt you hear Ribadu just took another husband?How?Its not possible to get get married to more than one man in our society.Who says in the kingdom of politics,miracles are constant.Thats ture my brother.I was even suprised when i heard Ribadu married Tinubu.Because he chased the man seriously when he was at EFCC for corruption.I guess the egberipapa papa of Ota,the Ebora of owu,Uncle Sege himself instigated that.They even said he testified against Tinubu at a senate hearing.But at the NN24 debat he said he didnt,that he only said the mans case is of international dimensions.I remember though that he chased the man with vigour locally.He couldnt just catch him.I think the fight is settled.I am not Esu Laaroye who cries blood when the prson bearing the pain cries tears.Its was good nes to hear that they got married,I hope they live ever and after.

I thought you said he took another husband recently?who did you say he got married to?You have amnesia cum delusionitis plus a hard skin to problems that would eat into the future of your generations.

I would tell you,make sure you dont forget this time.he just got engaged to IBB.Ehn.Yes soo.Na so we see am.IBB openly endorsed him and his partner,Fola Adeola.

He said that there should be a generational shift to younger people that he beleived in the duo of Ribadu and Fola.Is it not the same IBB that said youths dont have what it takes?I tire ooo.Babaginda is just a politician anyway.But you know I said it that that this Ribadu and his Cbal chairmen?I think if he wins this election he would be too indulgent of these corrupt people.Because what he can't do for Tinubu the blood sucker of Lagos he can't do for the pipeline blood sucker of minna and Ebora of Owu.

I heard that Tinubu has a hand in that Oriental Hotel on the Lagos Island?Where did he get that kind of money.Anyway I would say that these parties are not parties.Fashola is Fashola,Amaechi is Amaechi.Is politics not meant for the well being of people,its not for building of armour tanks to fight opposition and the ruling party.But Tinubu provided a platform for Fashola.Dont touch it,its fasholas works they are using to campaign across Nigeria now.what if the man agreed to share the resources?what if he was ultimately impeached?

All the same Tinubu is better husband for now.Better than the Monarchial absolutist of his time,Obasanjo and Bode George-the Joseph of our time.

But this thing with IBB should be adjusted.I thought they were engaged?You are right,an engagement is not marriage.He can still call it off.

CLIMATE CHANGE:BETWEEN DEVELOPED AND EMERGING COUNTRIES

Climate Change refers to the alteration in the average weather condition of a place over a period of time owing to average temperature changes in the globe. Does this hold any danger ultimately for humanity?

Climate change is a result of global warming; global warming is caused by the greenhouse effect of greenhouse gases. Greenhouse gases include carbon dioxide which takes the largest proportion in the atmosphere, Methane, Flourine compounds and water vapour.

The earth gets heated in the following mechanism; the heat from the sun touches the earth and some of the heat is radiated back to the atmosphere, then some escape and others get trapped by the greenhouse gases. The heat trapped by the gases is used to provide some warmth for the earth otherwise the earth could be too cold. In the same vein high concentrations of these gases provide for excess rapping of this heat which in turn warms the earth excessively and disrupts the working of nature. This has been the trend overtime and has led to natural disasters such as hurricanes,desert encroachment, coastal flooding etc.

This is just but trivializing the profound effects and silent destruction of human life and nature resulting from climate change.

The culprit in all these is not carbon dioxide or other greenhouse gases-its human activities. There are two major factors which are; natural events and human activities. Thats of humans is the most rapid in creating adverse effects on planet earth. Human activities are against the replenishing potential of the environment. With attendant deforestation, nuclear works,electronics,and burning of fossil fuels to power industries the situation has only gotten worse.

The damage has been done gradually, systematically and unconsciously. The question is what have orld leaders done consciously to arrest the situation? The Kyoto protocol has been crafted, talks have been held in Copenhagen and Cancun in Mexico, without much commitment to cut emission of greenhouse gases because of lust for power and economic prosperity. United states,Britain,Japan,Canada on the developed side and Brazil, china and India on the emerging side hold the ace.But they came out without nothing but creation of a fund for little brother Africa for adaptation. Very funny, much of the catastrophe from climate change has been shared by them. With flooding’s in Australia, tsunami in Japan, hurricanes in USA its better they do something early enough.It seems they need the funds more now.

Climate change is killing animals as a result of acidification in sea water.20 per cent of artic ice has melted. If the average temperature increases up to 4 degrees then cereals would be reduced largely then the current food crisis would only be a tip of the iceberg. Very soon twenty three per cent of the chinese would no longer have access to melt glacial water in dry season. Half of Himalayan glaciers would disappear by 2050.

With the ozone layer fast depleting, I hope we don’t suffer from global epidemics and all sorts radiation induced sicknesses.

Finally, I hope one day darkness won’t be on the surface of the deep. If it comes to that I pray creation should provide institutions to curb the excesses of man.If not world leaders would have sat to clear the path that seems to be leading to human destruction.