For a while I pondered on the successes of the emerging economies, rising out of the ashes to compete with America, United Kingdom and other European powers.Brazil,India,China and Russia indeed have achieved a feat.
Of all Chinas success is unique. It operates a communist system of government and managed to care for a large population. Just second to America with promises of being the next power, China has proven to be beyond the phenomenon of being phenomenal. That’s the current reality.
Citing these milestones may be easy, saying otherwise with facts may be painful; after all a good number of left wing Marxists would have been quick to rejoice over the possibility of overthrowing capitalism. The bottom line is Chinas success maybe short-lived. Why?
Internal democracy is non-existent in China, in recent time’s Tibetan monks and some Mongolia citizens have made dissenting positions such that the government had to suppress them with force. Remember the Tiananmen Square? It lives in the memories of people but the power of the barrel of the gun still holds sway and it is the most powerful according to Chairman Mao-Pioneer of the communist party in China. According to feelers some members of the communist party are aware of this and have made arrangements such as buying houses abroad and getting their passports ready so that they can travel once the bubble bursts like it did in old USSR.
Demographically China has been very fortunate over the years with a large population of young people yesteryears China has been able to enjoy demographic dividends. Today the young people are now old and the likelihood of replacing them is dim. Thanks to the one child per family policy. It cannot be overemphasized that the once young people were the one of the major pillars holding the Chinese state. With rising wages and rising prices of food, China still has pension issues to contend with when these crop of old people retire. The only option is to extend retirement age like France did. Given the forceful nature of their government this is possible, but for how long?
Chinese policy is not far reaching unlike the capitalist club. Africa can be polygamous by befriending China, but not permanently.Africas true husband is the west. With the romance between America and India, with the promise of a United Nations council sit to India, China and Russia’s anti-western mien would be adjusted. India has been giving out aids to other countries, China has only been investing. If it was you who would you dance to? The former I guess.
Media power is little on Chinas side of the divide. The west’s greatest power is the media. Even Al-Jazeera still sets their agenda for them. Who are the real allies of China? Iran? Russia? Even Cuba has started reforms. Let’s hope China does same, otherwise she would or might wake up on the other side of old USSR.
